Double-Edged Bullets: The Conditional Effect of Terrorism on Vote for the Incumbent

Abstract Terrorism often seeks to impact democratic politics. This article explores how it can influence the electoral fortunes of incumbent. Existing research is contradictory. Models retrospective voting predict a negative impact, as terrorism detrimental voters' welfare. However, well-known ‘rally around flag’ effect suggests otherwise: following terrorist attack, voters cling We reconcile these arguments and argue that while both effects coexist, assessment more durable than rally flag. Using data on all deadly domestic attacks in Spain between 1977 2008, matched with municipal-level national election results, we show exposure strikes occur during last quarter term benefit incumbent, temporally distant are electorally harmful. In line our theory, find pronounced temporal heterogeneity for indiscriminate those target civilians.